Sivasspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sivasspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Beşiktaş at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Beşiktaş have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Sivasspor's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 66% and Beşiktaş 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 57% | Beşiktaş 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.09 xG and Beşiktaş 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.836 / defence 1.043 | Beşiktaş attack 1.031 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.398. Data: 59 Sivasspor games / 58 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 27% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 47%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 2.13. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Beşiktaş 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 27% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Sivasspor 1.09 / Beşiktaş 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.836 / def 1.043 | Beşiktaş attack 1.031 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 27% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sivasspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.84x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
27%
3.65
26%
3.84
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.59
1.50
Beşiktaş xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.43
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.50 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.69 PPG from 58 outings (26W 20D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.29 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 8W 13D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (9W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 26W 20D 12L in their last 58 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sivasspor at 68%, Beşiktaş at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sivasspor) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sivasspor's games and 71% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sivasspor's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.09 xG and Beşiktaş 1.50 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Beşiktaş attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 27% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 47%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 57%, Beşiktaş 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.29 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.