Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 5D 2L at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.11 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.775 / defence 0.851 | Trabzonspor attack 1.261 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.282. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Samsunspor games / 56 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Samsunspor 1.11 / Trabzonspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.775 / def 0.851 | Trabzonspor attack 1.261 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Trabzonspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Samsunspor 0 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 26% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Samsunspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
26%
3.80
34%
2.90
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
Trabzonspor xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.38 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 26W 16D 14L from 56 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 13L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.68 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 18D 13L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 46%, Trabzonspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Samsunspor) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 32%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 61% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Samsunspor's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Samsunspor 0-3 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.11 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 26% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 39%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.68 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.