Samsunspor 0-0 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pendikspor make the trip to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Thursday 4 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Pendikspor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pendikspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.30 for Pendikspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Pendikspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 53% versus Pendikspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 43% | Pendikspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.25 xG and Pendikspor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.016 / defence 0.857 | Pendikspor attack 0.849 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.206. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Samsunspor games / 30 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 67% | Draw 21% | Pendikspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Pendikspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 40% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 67% | Draw 21% | Pendikspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Samsunspor 2.25 / Pendikspor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.016 / def 0.857 | Pendikspor attack 0.849 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pendikspor xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Pendikspor?
Samsunspor 0 - 0 Pendikspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 67% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Samsunspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Pendikspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Pendikspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Pendikspor's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.85x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.80
12%
8.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.13
0.88
Pendikspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
8.39
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
79.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.88 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 10W 6D 14L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 15L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Samsunspor against 0.97 for Pendikspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.13 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Pendikspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.93 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Samsunspor
1
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 0, Pendikspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2024, when Samsunspor 0-0 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Pendikspor?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Pendikspor 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Samsunspor) and 60% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Samsunspor's games and 80% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Samsunspor's recent games and 60% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor and Pendikspor finished level at 0-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.25 xG and Pendikspor 0.88 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Pendikspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Pendikspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.47, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 67% | Draw 21% | Pendikspor 12%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 43%, Pendikspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pendikspor's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.20 PPG, Pendikspor 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.