Samsunspor 3-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Eyüpspor travel to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Samsunspor at 1.10 PPG versus Eyüpspor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Eyüpspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Eyüpspor trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 41% versus Eyüpspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 50% | Eyüpspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.28 xG and Eyüpspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.905 / defence 1.109 | Eyüpspor attack 0.796 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.205. Data: 70 Samsunspor games / 32 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Eyüpspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Samsunspor 1.28 / Eyüpspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.905 / def 1.109 | Eyüpspor attack 0.796 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Eyüpspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Samsunspor 3 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 41% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Samsunspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Eyüpspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.60
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.35
1.06
Eyüpspor xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.06 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 32 games, going 16W 6D 10L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.69 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 8W 2D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.53 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 16W 6D 10L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.73 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Eyüpspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Samsunspor) and 40% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 53% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Samsunspor's recent games and 40% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.28 xG and Eyüpspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Eyüpspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.86, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 31%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 50%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.69 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.