Samsunspor 4-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Samsunspor at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodrum FK's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 away fixtures (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Samsunspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Bodrum FK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bodrum FK — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 46% versus Bodrum FK 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 46% | Bodrum FK 31%). Note also that Bodrum FK surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.85 xG and Bodrum FK 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.042 / defence 0.921 | Bodrum FK attack 0.719 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.310. Bodrum FK's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 51 games and Bodrum FK's last 13.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 59% | Draw 26% | Bodrum FK 15%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.70 | Draw 3.90 | Bodrum FK 6.48. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Bodrum FK 33% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 14 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 59% | Draw 26% | Bodrum FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Samsunspor 1.85 / Bodrum FK 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.042 / def 0.921 | Bodrum FK attack 0.719 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bodrum FK xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK?
Samsunspor 4 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 14) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 59% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Samsunspor and Bodrum FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bodrum FK's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.72x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 51 games and Bodrum FK's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.90
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.72
0.87
Bodrum FK xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
2%
41.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.87 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 8W 2D 3L from 13 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 8L across 13 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Samsunspor by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.77 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Bodrum FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
0
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Bodrum FK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 2, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Bodrum FK 1-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Bodrum FK?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Bodrum FK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Samsunspor and 33% for Bodrum FK.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 33%; Bodrum FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Bodrum FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 33% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Bodrum FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Samsunspor's recent games and 33% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Bodrum FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 83% of Bodrum FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Bodrum FK 4-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.85 xG and Bodrum FK 0.87 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodrum FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Bodrum FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 59% | Draw 26% | Bodrum FK 15%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Bodrum FK 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.