Samsunspor 1-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Beşiktaş meet at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 42% | Beşiktaş 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.37 xG and Beşiktaş 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.827 / defence 1.123 | Beşiktaş attack 1.244 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.195. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Samsunspor games / 48 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 43%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 60% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Samsunspor 1.37 / Beşiktaş 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.827 / def 1.123 | Beşiktaş attack 1.244 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Samsunspor 1 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Samsunspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.24x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 12/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.79
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.56
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.67 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 2W 2D 8L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 7W 1D 4L from 12 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Samsunspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 60%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Samsunspor and 80% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Samsunspor's games and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Samsunspor's matches and 80% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Samsunspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Samsunspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Samsunspor 1-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.37 xG and Beşiktaş 1.67 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Beşiktaş attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 30% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 43%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 42%, Beşiktaş 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.