Samsunspor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Antalyaspor meet at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu this season.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Samsunspor's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Antalyaspor's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Antalyaspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 52% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 44% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.06 xG and Antalyaspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.104 / defence 1.036 | Antalyaspor attack 0.983 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.323. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Samsunspor games / 48 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 53% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Antalyaspor 4.17. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 60% | Antalyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 53% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Samsunspor 2.06 / Antalyaspor 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.104 / def 1.036 | Antalyaspor attack 0.983 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Antalyaspor xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 53% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Samsunspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.98x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.28
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.41
1.35
Antalyaspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
3%
32.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.35 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 18W 11D 19L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 18L across 48 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.25 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
0
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Antalyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Samsunspor) and 58% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Samsunspor's games and 67% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Samsunspor's recent games and 58% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.06 xG and Antalyaspor 1.35 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 53% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 44%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.35 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.