Rizespor 3-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Rizespor welcome Göztepe to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Süper Lig appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 1W 4D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 0.90 PPG versus Göztepe's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Rizespor trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Göztepe trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 40% versus Göztepe 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 67% | Göztepe 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.22 xG and Göztepe 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.872 / defence 1.139 | Göztepe attack 0.981 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.117. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Rizespor games / 15 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 30% | Göztepe 36%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Göztepe 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 43% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 30% | Göztepe 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Rizespor 1.22 / Göztepe 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.872 / def 1.139 | Göztepe attack 0.981 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Göztepe xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Göztepe kick off?
Rizespor vs Göztepe kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Rizespor 3 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Rizespor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Göztepe part of?
Rizespor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 35% chance of winning, Göztepe a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rizespor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Göztepe in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.87) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.37
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Göztepe xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.25 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rizespor come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 1D 11L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 0.67 PPG, Göztepe on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rizespor's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 3W 1D 11L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Göztepe away?
Rizespor's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.43 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Göztepe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
0
Draws
3
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Göztepe have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Göztepe 3-1 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rizespor at 43%, Göztepe at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Rizespor) and 71% (Göztepe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Rizespor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Rizespor's matches and 71% of Göztepe's.
Do Rizespor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Göztepe 3-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.22 xG and Göztepe 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Göztepe attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 35% | Draw 30% | Göztepe 36%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 67%, Göztepe 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 0.67 PPG, Göztepe 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.