Rizespor vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rizespor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at : 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beşiktaş are 0.80 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Rizespor's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Beşiktaş 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.33 xG and Beşiktaş 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.872 / defence 1.444 | Beşiktaş attack 1.066 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Rizespor games / 44 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 26% | Draw 22% | Beşiktaş 51%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Beşiktaş 1.96. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Beşiktaş 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 26% | Draw 22% | Beşiktaş 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Rizespor 1.33 / Beşiktaş 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.872 / def 1.444 | Beşiktaş attack 1.066 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 26% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rizespor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.07x) against Rizespor's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
26%
3.79
22%
4.51
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.26
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
4%
26.08
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.93 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 13D 18L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.80 PPG from 44 outings (23W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.80 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.29 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 43%, Beşiktaş 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rizespor) and 52% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Rizespor's recent matches and 52% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Rizespor's recent games and 52% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.