Rizespor 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Başakşehir travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rizespor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 46% versus Başakşehir 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Başakşehir 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.95 xG and Başakşehir 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.942 / defence 1.319 | Başakşehir attack 0.861 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.089. Data: 25 Rizespor games / 24 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 27% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 42%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Başakşehir 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 60% | Başakşehir 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 27% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Rizespor 0.95 / Başakşehir 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.942 / def 1.319 | Başakşehir attack 0.861 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Başakşehir xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Rizespor 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Rizespor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 27% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rizespor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
27%
3.69
31%
3.22
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.18
1.24
Başakşehir xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.70
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.9 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.24 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor's recent record stands at 6W 5D 13L from 24 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 8L across 24 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 6W 1D 5L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.42 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 12W 4D 8L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Rizespor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.58 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 58%, Başakşehir 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Rizespor) and 50% (Başakşehir).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rizespor's games and 58% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Rizespor's recent games and 50% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Rizespor 0-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.95 xG and Başakşehir 1.24 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Başakşehir attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 27% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Başakşehir 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.