Pendikspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Alanyaspor travel to Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu to take on Pendikspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Pendikspor — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pendikspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Alanyaspor — 0.73 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.67). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Pendikspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 100% versus Alanyaspor 0%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pendikspor 33% | Alanyaspor 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.19 xG and Alanyaspor 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.826 / defence 1.619 | Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.361. Data: 3 Pendikspor games / 39 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 18% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 55%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 100% | Alanyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 18% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Pendikspor 1.19 / Alanyaspor 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.826 / def 1.619 | Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Alanyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor?
Pendikspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 18% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Pendikspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Alanyaspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.83) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
18%
5.45
26%
3.78
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.28
2.09
Alanyaspor xG
5.45
18%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
12%
8.09
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
2%
44.08
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pendikspor and 2.09 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pendikspor come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Pendikspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Pendikspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Pendikspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 0.67 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 0%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Pendikspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
2
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Alanyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 100%, Alanyaspor 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pendikspor and 0% for Alanyaspor.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 100%; Alanyaspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 0% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pendikspor's recent games and 0% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pendikspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, as Pendikspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.19 xG and Alanyaspor 2.09 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.62 against Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 18% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 55%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 33%, Alanyaspor 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pendikspor conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.