Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 46%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Trabzonspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Konyaspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Konyaspor 2–3 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Trabzonspor have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Trabzonspor 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.006 / defence 1.173 | Trabzonspor attack 0.892 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.191. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 62 games and Trabzonspor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.18 | Draw 3.81 | Trabzonspor 3.59. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Konyaspor 1.66 / Trabzonspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.006 / def 1.173 | Trabzonspor attack 0.892 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Monday 3 March 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.01) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 62 games and Trabzonspor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.81
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.25 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 20D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 29W 12D 20L from 61 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 9D 11L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 8D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 26L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 29W 12D 20L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Konyaspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 70% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 55%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Konyaspor) and 55% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Konyaspor's games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Konyaspor's recent games and 55% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Trabzonspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Trabzonspor 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Trabzonspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Trabzonspor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.