Konyaspor 0-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Sivasspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 0 for Sivasspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Konyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 47% | Sivasspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.30 xG and Sivasspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.970 / defence 0.827 | Sivasspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.099. Data: 19 Konyaspor games / 19 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Sivasspor 4.76. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Konyaspor 1.30 / Sivasspor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.970 / def 0.827 | Sivasspor attack 0.860 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sivasspor xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.27
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.09
0.78
Sivasspor xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.78 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 11W 6D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 6W 8D 5L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (6W 3D 0L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 11W 6D 2L in their last 19 games (2.05 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 44%, Sivasspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Konyaspor's games and 67% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.30 xG and Sivasspor 0.78 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Sivasspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 48% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 47%, Sivasspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.