Kayserispor 1-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Rizespor meet at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 6W 1D 3L at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kayserispor, 1 for Rizespor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 59% versus Rizespor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 59% | Rizespor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.74 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.962 / defence 1.328 | Rizespor attack 0.635 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.217. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Kayserispor games / 32 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 53% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 4.76. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 40% | Rizespor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 53% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Kayserispor 1.74 / Rizespor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.962 / def 1.328 | Rizespor attack 0.635 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rizespor xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Rizespor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Rizespor part of?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 53% chance of winning, Rizespor a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kayserispor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.64x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.95
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.77
1.03
Rizespor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
26.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.03 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 11W 8D 13L from 32 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 19L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Kayserispor against 0.91 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rizespor's away record stands at 0W 3D 12L across 15 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.00 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 8W 5D 19L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Rizespor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.93 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 47%, Rizespor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kayserispor and 67% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Rizespor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 47% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kayserispor's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Kayserispor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 33, as Kayserispor and Rizespor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.74 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Rizespor attack 0.64 / defence 1.46, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 53% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 21%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 59%, Rizespor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.28 PPG, Rizespor 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.