Kayserispor 2-0 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's home record at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pendikspor have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Kayserispor's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 57% and Pendikspor 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 43% | Pendikspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.78 xG and Pendikspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.882 / defence 0.781 | Pendikspor attack 1.041 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.265. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kayserispor's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Kayserispor games / 14 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Pendikspor 4.76. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 30% | Pendikspor 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Kayserispor 1.78 / Pendikspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.882 / def 0.781 | Pendikspor attack 1.041 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pendikspor xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Pendikspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 0 Pendikspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Pendikspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 54% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kayserispor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Pendikspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (1.04x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 50/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.05
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.03
Pendikspor xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
28.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.03 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 7W 5D 2L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pendikspor's form line: 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kayserispor are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pendikspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (4W 3D 0L).
On the road, Pendikspor have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.14 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 71%.
Defensively: Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Pendikspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.14 PPG; Pendikspor away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Pendikspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Pendikspor 1-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Pendikspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 43%, Pendikspor 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Kayserispor) and 71% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Kayserispor's games and 86% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kayserispor's recent games and 71% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Pendikspor 2-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.78 xG and Pendikspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pendikspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.88 / defence 0.78 against Pendikspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 50/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 54% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 21%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 43%, Pendikspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pendikspor's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.