Kayserispor 0-4 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fenerbahçe make the trip to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kayserispor 0W, Fenerbahçe 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 60% and Fenerbahçe 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 57% | Fenerbahçe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.46 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.072 / defence 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.167 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.242. Data: 30 Kayserispor games / 30 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 34% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 42%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Fenerbahçe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 34% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Kayserispor 1.46 / Fenerbahçe 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.072 / def 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.167 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Fenerbahçe xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Kayserispor 0 - 4 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 34% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.17x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
34%
2.98
24%
4.16
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.13
1.67
Fenerbahçe xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
6%
15.76
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.67 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 15W 8D 7L from 30 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kayserispor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 4D 4L from 15 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.00 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Kayserispor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Kayserispor, 80% for Fenerbahçe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kayserispor) and 53% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Kayserispor's games and 80% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kayserispor's recent games and 53% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 0-4 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.46 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.67 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 34% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 42%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 57%, Fenerbahçe 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.