Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 7 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 4D 1L at — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Kasımpaşa, 1.20 for Göztepe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Göztepe have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Kasımpaşa's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Göztepe have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Göztepe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 45% | Göztepe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.71 xG and Göztepe 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / defence 0.935 | Göztepe attack 1.489 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Göztepe have an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Kasımpaşa games / 42 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 40% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 37%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Göztepe 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 40% | Göztepe 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 7 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 40% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.71 / Göztepe 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / def 0.935 | Göztepe attack 1.489 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Göztepe xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 7 December 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 40% chance of winning, Göztepe a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 4W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.49x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
40%
2.51
23%
4.39
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.37
1.65
Göztepe xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.65 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 11W 15D 16L from 42 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 10L across 42 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.52 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 6W 9D 6L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Göztepe's away record stands at 7W 8D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.40 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 16W 16D 10L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.29 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Göztepe in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won 5-0 on 13 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Göztepe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 48%, Göztepe 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Kasımpaşa) and 48% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Göztepe in 33%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 52% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 48% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Göztepe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.