Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Kasımpaşa welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 0.60 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 52% versus Fatih Karagümrük 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 43% | Fatih Karagümrük 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.663 / defence 0.942 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.699 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.321. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Kasımpaşa games / 21 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.15 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.663 / def 0.942 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.699 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Fatih Karagümrük xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 38% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
38%
2.61
38%
2.62
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.02
0.87
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.87 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 7D 11L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 0.57 PPG from 21 outings (3W 3D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 0.76 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 0W 5D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 15L in their last 21 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.50 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Kasımpaşa) and 70% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 50% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kasımpaşa's games and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 70% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Fatih Karagümrük 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.66 / defence 0.94 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 43%, Fatih Karagümrük 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 0.76 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.