Kasımpaşa 3-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.10 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Antalyaspor and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 0–0 Antalyaspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Antalyaspor trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Antalyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Antalyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.68 xG and Antalyaspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.959 / defence 1.178 | Antalyaspor attack 0.885 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 71 games and Antalyaspor's last 71.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.22 | Draw 3.65 | Antalyaspor 3.62. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 36 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.68 / Antalyaspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.959 / def 1.178 | Antalyaspor attack 0.885 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 36) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 45% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.96) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 71 games and Antalyaspor's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.65
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.97
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.29 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 26W 14D 31L from 71 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 29L across 71 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 14W 7D 14L from their last 35 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 7W 9D 19L across their last 35 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 26W 14D 31L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 22W 20D 29L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
3
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 66%, Antalyaspor 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Kasımpaşa) and 40% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Kasımpaşa's games and 49% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 40% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 71% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Antalyaspor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.68 xG and Antalyaspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Antalyaspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.