Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Kalyon Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Kalyon Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Gaziantep FK, 1.00 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Gaziantep FK 2W, Konyaspor 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 43% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 61% | Konyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.826 / defence 1.112 | Konyaspor attack 0.782 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.236. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Gaziantep FK games / 57 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 48% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 4.35. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 40% | Konyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 48% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.63 / Konyaspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.826 / def 1.112 | Konyaspor attack 0.782 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 48% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.83) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.78x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.40
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.70
1.07
Konyaspor xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.07 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 56 games, going 12W 11D 33L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (16W 22D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 6W 6D 15L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (7W 11D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 12W 11D 33L in their last 56 games (0.84 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 16W 22D 18L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.89 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
5
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Konyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 48%, Konyaspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Gaziantep FK and 63% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 59% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 63% of Konyaspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Konyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.31, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 48% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 23%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.