Gaziantep FK 0-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gaziantep FK face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kalyon Stadyumu plays host to Gaziantep FK versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 1.10 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 43% versus Fenerbahçe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Gaziantep FK 61% | Fenerbahçe 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.873 / defence 1.220 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.639 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.245. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.639 — the away xG of 2.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Gaziantep FK games / 55 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 12% | Draw 20% | Fenerbahçe 68%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gaziantep FK 40% | Fenerbahçe 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 12% | Draw 20% | Fenerbahçe 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.03 / Fenerbahçe 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.873 / def 1.220 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.639 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
2.49
Fenerbahçe xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 12% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 4W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.87) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.64x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.49.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.2%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
12%
8.11
20%
5.08
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.51
2.49
Fenerbahçe xG
8.11
12%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
8%
12.05
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
1%
97.72
24%
4.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 2.49 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 54 games, going 12W 10D 32L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.39 PPG from 54 outings (41W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 6W 6D 14L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.35 points per game from 26 outings (19W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.59 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 12W 10D 32L in their last 54 games (0.85 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 6D 7L in their last 54 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.92 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 27 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
0
Draws
9
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Fenerbahçe 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Gaziantep FK and 62% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 35%; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 54% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Gaziantep FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 0-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.49 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gaziantep FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.64 / defence 0.77, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 12% | Draw 20% | Fenerbahçe 68%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Fenerbahçe 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.