Gaziantep FK 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Başakşehir travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 January 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Başakşehir 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 58% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 51% | Başakşehir 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG and Başakşehir 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.965 / defence 0.935 | Başakşehir attack 1.112 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.405. Data: 53 Gaziantep FK games / 53 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 34% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Başakşehir 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 34% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.32 / Başakşehir 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.965 / def 0.935 | Başakşehir attack 1.112 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Başakşehir xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 5 January 2023 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 34% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Record (2 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.96) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
34%
2.94
26%
3.88
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.78
1.46
Başakşehir xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.46 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 15D 22L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 28W 11D 14L from 53 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (13W 10D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 10W 8D 7L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 28W 11D 14L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.96 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 64%, Başakşehir 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gaziantep FK) and 48% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gaziantep FK's games and 60% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 48% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir finished level at 1-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG and Başakşehir 1.46 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Başakşehir attack 1.11 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 34% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 51%, Başakşehir 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.