Galatasaray 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galatasaray at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to NEF Stadyumu to face Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Galatasaray (all games): 4W 2D 2L across 8 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Galatasaray have posted 2W 0D 1L at NEF Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 5D 0L from 8 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 1W 3D 0L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.75 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.75 for Konyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Galatasaray 62% and Konyaspor 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 75% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.14 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 0.946 / defence 1.095 | Konyaspor attack 0.817 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.159. Data: 8 Galatasaray games / 8 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 38% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Galatasaray 67% | Konyaspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 38% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Galatasaray 1.14 / Konyaspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 0.946 / def 1.095 | Konyaspor attack 0.817 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Konyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Konyaspor kick off?
Galatasaray vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Konyaspor?
Galatasaray 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Galatasaray vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Konyaspor part of?
Galatasaray vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 38% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Galatasaray and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Galatasaray and Konyaspor in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-0L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Galatasaray's attack at 0.95x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.82x) against Galatasaray's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.41
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Konyaspor xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.04 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 3W 5D 0L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.75 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Galatasaray are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 0L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Konyaspor away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 7 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Galatasaray
0
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 7, Konyaspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Konyaspor 2-0 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Konyaspor?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Galatasaray, 67% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Galatasaray) and 33% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 33%; Galatasaray have failed to score in 33% of games; Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Galatasaray's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Galatasaray's recent games and 33% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Konyaspor 1-0 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.14 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Konyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 38% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 33%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 75%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.75 PPG, Konyaspor 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock. Galatasaray (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.