Göztepe 0-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Giresunspor make the trip to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's home record at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Giresunspor have collected 0.29 PPG across 7 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Giresunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.71 vs 0.29 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 43% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Giresunspor half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 71% versus Giresunspor 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Göztepe 57% | Giresunspor 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.09 xG and Giresunspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.739 / defence 1.279 | Giresunspor attack 0.647 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.056. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Giresunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Göztepe games / 7 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 40% | Draw 31% | Giresunspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Giresunspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 33% | Giresunspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 40% | Draw 31% | Giresunspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Göztepe 1.09 / Giresunspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.739 / def 1.279 | Giresunspor attack 0.647 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Giresunspor xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Giresunspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Giresunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Giresunspor?
Göztepe 0 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Giresunspor part of?
Göztepe vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 40% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Göztepe and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Giresunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Giresunspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 0.74x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.65x) against Göztepe's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.23
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Göztepe xG
Total xG
1.96
0.87
Giresunspor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.87 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Giresunspor sit at 0.29 PPG from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Giresunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Giresunspor have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 0.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Giresunspor in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Giresunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Giresunspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.00 PPG; Giresunspor away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Göztepe
0
Draws
2
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Giresunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Giresunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Giresunspor 3-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Giresunspor?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Göztepe) and 33% (Giresunspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Göztepe and 33% for Giresunspor.
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 67% of games; Giresunspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Göztepe's recent matches and 33% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Göztepe's recent games and 33% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Giresunspor defy the odds to beat Göztepe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Göztepe 0-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.09 xG and Giresunspor 0.87 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.74 / defence 1.28 against Giresunspor attack 0.65 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 40% | Draw 31% | Giresunspor 29%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Giresunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 57%, Giresunspor 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Giresunspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 0.71 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Giresunspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Giresunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.