Göztepe 3-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Göztepe host Adana Demirspor at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 5W 1D 0L from 6 home games — 2.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Göztepe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Göztepe, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 0–7 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 62% versus Adana Demirspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 62% | Adana Demirspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 2.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.129 / defence 0.936 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.706 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.290. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Göztepe games / 51 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Adana Demirspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 50% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Göztepe 2.22 / Adana Demirspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.129 / def 0.936 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.706 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Adana Demirspor xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Göztepe 3 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 67% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Göztepe and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 1.13x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.70
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.07
0.85
Adana Demirspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
79.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.85 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 3D 4L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 0.15 PPG from 13 outings (0W 2D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.47 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 5W 1D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 0.69 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 11L in their last 13 (0.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.67 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Adana Demirspor won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Adana Demirspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Göztepe and 67% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 50% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Göztepe's matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Göztepe and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Adana Demirspor 3-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.85 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 62%, Adana Demirspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.