Fenerbahçe 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.60 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fenerbahçe 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 67% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.80 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.103 / defence 0.958 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.727 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.344. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Fenerbahçe games / 36 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.80 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.103 / def 0.958 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.727 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fatih Karagümrük xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe 0 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 56% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.10) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.73x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.71
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.74
0.94
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
34.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.94 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 20W 9D 7L from 36 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 12L across 36 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.56 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 11W 4D 3L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 games (1.92 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 16W 8D 12L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.06 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 61%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fenerbahçe) and 61% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fenerbahçe's games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fenerbahçe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 37, as Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.80 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.94 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fenerbahçe fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.35, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 1.92 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.