Fenerbahçe 2-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.00 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 69% and Beşiktaş 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 62% | Beşiktaş 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.70 xG and Beşiktaş 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.162 / defence 1.138 | Beşiktaş attack 0.734 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.150. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Fenerbahçe games / 16 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 21%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 4.76. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 71% | Beşiktaş 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.70 / Beşiktaş 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.162 / def 1.138 | Beşiktaş attack 0.734 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Beşiktaş xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 54% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.16) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.73x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.99
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.66
0.96
Beşiktaş xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
26.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.96 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 3D 5L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.50 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.00 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 71%, Beşiktaş 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Fenerbahçe) and 43% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fenerbahçe's games and 57% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 43% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş finished level at 2-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.70 xG and Beşiktaş 0.96 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.16 / defence 1.14 against Beşiktaş attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 21%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 62%, Beşiktaş 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 1.69 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.