Fenerbahçe 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Fenerbahçe welcome Alanyaspor to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fenerbahçe: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Alanyaspor, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Fenerbahçe trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Alanyaspor trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 53% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 68% | Alanyaspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.41 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.589 / defence 0.977 | Alanyaspor attack 0.866 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.166. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.589 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Fenerbahçe games / 60 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 67% | Draw 20% | Alanyaspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Alanyaspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Alanyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 67% | Draw 20% | Alanyaspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.41 / Alanyaspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.589 / def 0.977 | Alanyaspor attack 0.866 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 67% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Fenerbahçe 4W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.59x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.88
12%
8.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.39
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
8.15
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
9%
11.10
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
1%
90.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.99 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 60 games, going 45W 8D 7L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (17W 17D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 22W 4D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.77 points per game from 30 outings (5W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 45W 8D 7L in their last 60 games (2.38 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 17D 26L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.33 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 60%, Alanyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Fenerbahçe and 63% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fenerbahçe's games and 53% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 63% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 25, as Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.41 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.59 / defence 0.98 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 67% | Draw 20% | Alanyaspor 12%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Alanyaspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.