Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 52% and Fenerbahçe 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Fenerbahçe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / defence 1.122 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.555 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.226. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Fatih Karagümrük games / 61 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 63%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 8.33 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Fenerbahçe 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 / Fenerbahçe 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / def 1.122 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.555 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Fenerbahçe xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 12% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Record (7 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 5W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (0.73) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.55x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 25/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
12%
8.18
25%
3.98
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.06
2.14
Fenerbahçe xG
8.18
12%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.50
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
1%
69.50
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.14 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 3W 5D 17L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 16W 9D 0L from 25 games, 2.28 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 4D 0L from 12 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.28 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 5D 17L in their last 25 games (0.56 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 16W 9D 0L in their last 25 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.75 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 33%, Fenerbahçe 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 67% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 33%; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 67% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fenerbahçe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Fenerbahçe 2-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.14 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.55 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 63%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Fenerbahçe 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.