Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 4W 1D 5L at — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Trabzonspor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
It is worth noting that Trabzonspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Trabzonspor 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.35 xG and Trabzonspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.948 / defence 0.932 | Trabzonspor attack 1.042 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Eyüpspor 1.35 / Trabzonspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.948 / def 0.932 | Trabzonspor attack 1.042 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Trabzonspor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 40% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.95) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.04x) against Eyüpspor's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.76
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.55
1.21
Trabzonspor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.21 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 9D 19L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 10D 6L from 37 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eyüpspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 4D 4L from 19 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.76 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 70%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 10D 6L in their last 37 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.16 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 42%, Trabzonspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eyüpspor) and 63% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Eyüpspor's games and 74% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Eyüpspor's matches and 63% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.