Eyüpspor 1-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Beşiktaş travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.80 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 52% versus Beşiktaş 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 44% | Beşiktaş 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.939 / defence 0.809 | Beşiktaş attack 0.969 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.207. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Eyüpspor games / 60 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Beşiktaş 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Beşiktaş 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Eyüpspor 1.11 / Beşiktaş 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.939 / def 0.809 | Beşiktaş attack 0.969 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Beşiktaş xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Eyüpspor 1 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.06
0.95
Beşiktaş xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.95 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 11W 7D 5L from 23 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 5L across 23 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.74 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 3W 6D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.48 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 65%.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 10W 8D 5L in their last 23 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 46%, Beşiktaş 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eyüpspor) and 27% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 27% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 23/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 44%, Beşiktaş 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.74 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.