Eyüpspor 1-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 31 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
Başakşehir have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 59% versus Başakşehir 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Başakşehir 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.950 / defence 1.005 | Başakşehir attack 0.994 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.194. Data: 27 Eyüpspor games / 64 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 4.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Başakşehir 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Eyüpspor 1.80 / Başakşehir 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.950 / def 1.005 | Başakşehir attack 0.994 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Başakşehir xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Eyüpspor 1 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 51% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eyüpspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.95) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.99x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 27/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.13
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.99
1.19
Başakşehir xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
24.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.19 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 12W 8D 7L from 27 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 10L across 27 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.44 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 8W 3D 2L from 13 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 4W 2D 7L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.74 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 12W 8D 7L in their last 27 games (1.63 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 11W 6D 10L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.08 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 54%, Başakşehir 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Eyüpspor) and 54% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Başakşehir in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 54% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 54% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Eyüpspor 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.19 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Başakşehir win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Başakşehir 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.63 PPG, Başakşehir 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.