Beşiktaş 2-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Tüpraş Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tüpraş Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.40 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 2 for Trabzonspor and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 62% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.954 / defence 0.992 | Trabzonspor attack 1.177 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.187. Data: 59 Beşiktaş games / 58 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 33% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Trabzonspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 40% | Trabzonspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 33% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Beşiktaş 1.31 / Trabzonspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.954 / def 0.992 | Trabzonspor attack 1.177 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 33% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 3 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.95) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.24
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.70
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.39 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 33W 12D 13L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 27W 10D 21L from 58 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.91 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (18W 6D 4L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 5D 15L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.69 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 33W 12D 13L in their last 58 games (1.91 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 21L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.14 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Trabzonspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Beşiktaş and 68% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beşiktaş's games and 71% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Beşiktaş's matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Trabzonspor 2-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.39 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 33% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 36%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 62%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.91 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.