Beşiktaş 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 8 as Beşiktaş welcome Sivasspor to Vodafone Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş at Vodafone Park this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vodafone Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Vodafone Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 2W 3D 2L from 7 Süper Lig matches — 1.29 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Beşiktaş have the edge — a 0.71 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.29) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Sivasspor trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 43% versus Sivasspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 71% | Sivasspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.235 / defence 1.105 | Sivasspor attack 0.782 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.070. Data: 7 Beşiktaş games / 7 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Sivasspor 4.17. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 25% | Sivasspor 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Beşiktaş 1.45 / Sivasspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.235 / def 1.105 | Sivasspor attack 0.782 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sivasspor xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 49% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Beşiktaş and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.24) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.76
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Sivasspor xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.93 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 2L across 7 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sivasspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded. Beşiktaş's scoring rate against Sivasspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Sivasspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.33 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Sivasspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 33%, Sivasspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Beşiktaş) and 33% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sivasspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 67% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 33% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Sivasspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 24%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 71%, Sivasspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.