Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 3 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sivasspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sivasspor (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Başakşehir, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Sivasspor — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.
The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 46% versus Sivasspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 44% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.137 / defence 0.852 | Sivasspor attack 0.829 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.182. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Başakşehir games / 62 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Sivasspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 50% | Sivasspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 51% | xG Başakşehir 2.29 / Sivasspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.137 / def 0.852 | Sivasspor attack 0.829 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sivasspor xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 3 March 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 70% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Başakşehir and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Record (7 meetings): Başakşehir 5W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.83x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
70%
1.44
19%
5.30
12%
8.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.13
0.83
Sivasspor xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
8.67
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
10%
9.88
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
85.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.83 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 13D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (20W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.26 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (9W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 27W 13D 21L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Sivasspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.83 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 6, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 50%, Sivasspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sivasspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 57% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Sivasspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 44%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Sivasspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.