Başakşehir 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Konyaspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 2.20 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Başakşehir register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Başakşehir, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 52% versus Konyaspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 52% | Konyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.38 xG and Konyaspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.117 / defence 1.032 | Konyaspor attack 1.097 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.155. Data: 25 Başakşehir games / 25 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 38% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 38% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Başakşehir 1.38 / Konyaspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.117 / def 1.032 | Konyaspor attack 1.097 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 38% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.76
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.69
1.31
Konyaspor xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.31 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 13W 4D 8L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 14W 7D 4L from 25 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.72 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.60 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 13W 4D 8L in their last 25 games (1.72 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 7D 4L in their last 25 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.27 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 54%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Başakşehir) and 46% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Konyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Başakşehir's recent games and 46% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.38 xG and Konyaspor 1.31 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 38% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 35%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 52%, Konyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.72 PPG, Konyaspor 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.