Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.70 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fenerbahçe, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Başakşehir.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 55% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.43 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.237 / defence 0.909 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.118 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Başakşehir games / 42 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 32%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Fenerbahçe 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Başakşehir 1.43 / Fenerbahçe 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.237 / def 0.909 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.118 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fenerbahçe xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 42% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.85
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.64
1.21
Fenerbahçe xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.21 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 19W 11D 12L from 42 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 4L across 42 games — 2.14 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 12W 6D 3L across 21 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.36 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 12D 4L in their last 42 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.86 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 57%, Fenerbahçe 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Başakşehir and 62% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 43% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Başakşehir's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.