Başakşehir 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Beşiktaş at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beşiktaş's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 2, Beşiktaş 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 47% versus Beşiktaş 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 47% | Beşiktaş 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.39 xG and Beşiktaş 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.024 / defence 0.889 | Beşiktaş attack 0.963 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.296. Data: 60 Başakşehir games / 61 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 43% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 30%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Başakşehir dominate the H2H record, yet Beşiktaş are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 20% | Beşiktaş 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 43% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Başakşehir 1.39 / Beşiktaş 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.024 / def 0.889 | Beşiktaş attack 0.963 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Beşiktaş xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Başakşehir 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş part of?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 43% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Başakşehir and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.02) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.75
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.50
1.11
Beşiktaş xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.11 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 31W 12D 17L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 26W 21D 13L from 60 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.75 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.10 PPG from 30 outings (20W 3D 7L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 9W 12D 9L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.55 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 26W 21D 13L in their last 60 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Beşiktaş away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.10 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 37%, Beşiktaş 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Başakşehir) and 47% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Başakşehir's recent games and 47% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 0-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.39 xG and Beşiktaş 1.11 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Beşiktaş attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 43% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 30%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 47%, Beşiktaş 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.75 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.