Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Antalyaspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Başakşehir have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Antalyaspor have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 4–0 with Başakşehir winning.
The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 58% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 60% | Antalyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.252 / defence 1.060 | Antalyaspor attack 0.569 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.206. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Başakşehir games / 62 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 6.67. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 80% | Antalyaspor 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Başakşehir 1.50 / Antalyaspor 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.252 / def 1.060 | Antalyaspor attack 0.569 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Antalyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 53% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 15% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Başakşehir and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Başakşehir 5W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.25) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
53%
1.89
32%
3.13
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.23
0.73
Antalyaspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
29.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.73 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 28W 12D 22L from 62 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 30L across 62 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 14W 9D 8L from 31 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 5W 7D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 28W 12D 22L in their last 62 games (1.55 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 14D 30L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Antalyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.65 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 64%, Antalyaspor 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Başakşehir) and 42% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 39% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Başakşehir's recent games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.25 / defence 1.06 against Antalyaspor attack 0.57 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 53% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 15%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 60%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.