Başakşehir 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Antalyaspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Başakşehir, 2 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Antalyaspor trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Antalyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Antalyaspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.49 xG and Antalyaspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.051 / defence 0.956 | Antalyaspor attack 0.978 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.174. Data: 64 Başakşehir games / 64 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Antalyaspor 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Başakşehir 1.49 / Antalyaspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.051 / def 0.956 | Antalyaspor attack 0.978 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Antalyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 44% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Başakşehir and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.05) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.27
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.58
1.10
Antalyaspor xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.10 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 29W 14D 21L from 64 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 25L across 64 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.58 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 18W 4D 9L from 31 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 6W 9D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 29W 14D 21L in their last 64 games (1.58 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Antalyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.87 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 36%, Antalyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Başakşehir) and 36% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 26% of games; Antalyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Başakşehir's recent games and 36% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.49 xG and Antalyaspor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 44% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 26%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Antalyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.58 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.