Başakşehir 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Başakşehir welcome Adana Demirspor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.70 (Adana Demirspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (54 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor trading profile (54 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Adana Demirspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 48% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.33 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.992 / defence 0.994 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.021 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.382. Data: 54 Başakşehir games / 54 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 35% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Adana Demirspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 20% | Adana Demirspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 35% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Başakşehir 1.33 / Adana Demirspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.992 / def 0.994 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.021 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Adana Demirspor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 35% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.99x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.76
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.73
1.40
Adana Demirspor xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.40 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 28W 12D 14L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 23W 16D 15L from 54 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.78 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.04 PPG from 28 outings (18W 3D 7L).
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 28W 12D 14L in their last 54 games (1.78 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 23W 16D 15L in their last 54 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.04 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 36%, Adana Demirspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Başakşehir) and 57% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 29% of games; Adana Demirspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 61% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Başakşehir's recent games and 57% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Başakşehir defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 2-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.33 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 35% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 38%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 48%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (54 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.78 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.