Antalyaspor 2-2 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Antalyaspor welcome İstanbulspor to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
İstanbulspor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 0 for İstanbulspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 41% | İstanbulspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and İstanbulspor 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / defence 0.832 | İstanbulspor attack 0.790 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.145. Antalyaspor's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Antalyaspor games / 61 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | İstanbulspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | İstanbulspor 5.26. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 40% | İstanbulspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | İstanbulspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Antalyaspor 1.27 / İstanbulspor 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / def 0.832 | İstanbulspor attack 0.790 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.75
İstanbulspor xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 2 İstanbulspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 46% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | İstanbulspor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against İstanbulspor's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
46%
2.18
35%
2.88
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.02
0.75
İstanbulspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.75 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 19W 18D 24L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
İstanbulspor's form line: 15W 10D 36L from 61 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.23 PPG, İstanbulspor on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 7W 4D 19L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 15W 10D 36L in their last 61 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.60 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
0
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Antalyaspor 2-2 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 53%, İstanbulspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 53% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games; İstanbulspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 43% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 53% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 26, as Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and İstanbulspor 0.75 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. İstanbulspor outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against İstanbulspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | İstanbulspor 19%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 41%, İstanbulspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.