Antalyaspor 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Konyaspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 7W 2D 1L at Corendon Airlines Park — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Antalyaspor, 1.90 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Konyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Konyaspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.64 xG and Konyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.984 / defence 1.000 | Konyaspor attack 0.964 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.207. Data: 69 Antalyaspor games / 70 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.70. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Antalyaspor 1.64 / Konyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.984 / def 1.000 | Konyaspor attack 0.964 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Antalyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 5 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.96x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.09
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.80
1.16
Konyaspor xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.16 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 69 games, going 23W 20D 26L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.20 PPG from 69 outings (21W 20D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.20 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 17W 11D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.91 points per game from 34 outings (7W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 23W 20D 26L in their last 69 games (1.29 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 21W 20D 28L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.82 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
6
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Konyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 44% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 56% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 44% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Konyaspor 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.64 xG and Konyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 27%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG, Konyaspor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.