Antalyaspor 4-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Antalya Stadyumu plays host to Antalyaspor versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 11 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 6W 3D 1L at Antalya Stadyumu — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Antalya Stadyumu.
Hatayspor (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Antalyaspor's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 48% versus Hatayspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 48% | Hatayspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.00 xG and Hatayspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.110 / defence 0.887 | Hatayspor attack 0.805 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.216. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Antalyaspor games / 31 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 63% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Hatayspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 63% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Antalyaspor 2.00 / Hatayspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.110 / def 0.887 | Hatayspor attack 0.805 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Hatayspor xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor 4 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 63% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Antalyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.81x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.50
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.87
0.87
Hatayspor xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
50.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.87 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 31 games, going 12W 8D 11L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.55 PPG from 31 outings (14W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.55 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.55 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 14W 6D 11L in their last 31 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.87 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Hatayspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 60%, Hatayspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Antalyaspor) and 40% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hatayspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 40% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 40% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 4-1 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.00 xG and Hatayspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Hatayspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.46, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 63% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 15%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 48%, Hatayspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.42 PPG, Hatayspor 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.