Antalyaspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Monday 4 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.90 for Gaziantep FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Gaziantep FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Gaziantep FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 44% | Gaziantep FK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.21 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.855 / defence 0.922 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.167 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.163. Data: 63 Antalyaspor games / 62 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 33% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 34%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Gaziantep FK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 33% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Antalyaspor 1.21 / Gaziantep FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.855 / def 0.922 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.167 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gaziantep FK xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.17x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
33%
3.08
33%
3.03
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Gaziantep FK xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.25 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 19W 19D 24L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 13W 14D 35L from 62 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.85 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 5D 19L from 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.00 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 14D 35L in their last 62 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
6
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-4 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 55%, Gaziantep FK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Antalyaspor) and 61% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Gaziantep FK in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 42% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Antalyaspor's matches and 61% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.21 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gaziantep FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 33% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 34%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 44%, Gaziantep FK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.