Antalyaspor 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 16 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Antalyaspor. A 0.60 PPG lead over Adana Demirspor (1.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Adana Demirspor have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Antalyaspor's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
It is worth noting that Adana Demirspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 62% and Adana Demirspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 48% | Adana Demirspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.016 / defence 0.981 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.952 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.275. Data: 42 Antalyaspor games / 42 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Adana Demirspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Adana Demirspor lead the H2H ledger, but Antalyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Antalyaspor 1.48 / Adana Demirspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.016 / def 0.981 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.952 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Adana Demirspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 16 September 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (6 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 4W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.95x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.53
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.19
Adana Demirspor xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.19 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 13W 14D 15L from 42 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 17L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.07 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 9W 9D 3L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 1W 11D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 13W 14D 15L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
4
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 57%, Adana Demirspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Antalyaspor) and 48% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Adana Demirspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Antalyaspor's games and 67% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 48% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Adana Demirspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 29%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 48%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.26 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.