Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Diyarbakir Stadium plays host to Amed versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Amed (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Diyarbakir Stadium, Amed have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Amed, 1.70 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Amed half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 40% versus Beşiktaş 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 80% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.78 xG and Beşiktaş 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.381 / defence 0.881 | Beşiktaş attack 1.002 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.176. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 Amed games / 39 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 55% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 22%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Beşiktaş 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Amed (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Amed 33% | Beşiktaş 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 55% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Amed 1.78 / Beşiktaş 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.381 / def 0.881 | Beşiktaş attack 1.002 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Amed (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Beşiktaş xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Amed vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What was the final score in Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Amed 3 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Amed vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Beşiktaş part of?
Amed vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 55% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Amed and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Beşiktaş in?
Amed (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amed's attack rating (1.38) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.00x) against Amed's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.30
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Amed xG
Total xG
2.82
1.04
Beşiktaş xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
27.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Amed and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Amed and 1.04 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Amed have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş's form line: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Amed against 2.40 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Amed are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Amed's scoring rate against Beşiktaş's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Amed have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Beşiktaş in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Amed or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Amed
0
Draws
0
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Beşiktaş?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Beşiktaş?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 40%, Beşiktaş 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Amed and 60% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Amed's recent matches and 40% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Amed's matches and 60% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Amed and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amed edge out Beşiktaş 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amed beat Beşiktaş 3-2 at Diyarbakir Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amed 1.78 xG and Beşiktaş 1.04 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Amed beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amed attack 1.38 / defence 0.88 against Beşiktaş attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amed 55% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 22%, with Amed to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amed 80%, Beşiktaş 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amed's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amed 2.00 PPG, Beşiktaş 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amed win broke the near-deadlock. Amed shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.