Alanyaspor 0-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Alanyaspor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sivasspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Alanyaspor 0W, Sivasspor 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 59% and Sivasspor 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 60% | Sivasspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.16 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.245 / defence 0.844 | Sivasspor attack 0.986 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.410. Data: 58 Alanyaspor games / 58 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 21% | Sivasspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Sivasspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Sivasspor lead the H2H ledger, but Alanyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 21% | Sivasspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Alanyaspor 2.16 / Sivasspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.245 / def 0.844 | Sivasspor attack 0.986 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sivasspor xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.25) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.99x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.79
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.33
1.17
Sivasspor xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
44.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.17 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 14D 19L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (18W 18D 22L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.24 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 8D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (10W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 18W 18D 22L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.72 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 62%, Sivasspor 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Alanyaspor and 62% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Alanyaspor's games and 66% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 62% of Sivasspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Alanyaspor 0-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.16 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Sivasspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 21% | Sivasspor 20%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 60%, Sivasspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.53 PPG, Sivasspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.