Adana Demirspor 4-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 42%, yet in-form Sivasspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Sivasspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Sivasspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sivasspor trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 62% and Sivasspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / defence 1.056 | Sivasspor attack 0.880 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.139. Data: 65 Adana Demirspor games / 65 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 42% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Sivasspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 50% | Sivasspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 42% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.38 / Sivasspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / def 1.056 | Sivasspor attack 0.880 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sivasspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Adana Demirspor 4 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 42% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
Record (5 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.22
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.44
1.06
Sivasspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.06 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 21D 16L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 65 outings (20W 19D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 20W 7D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (11W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 28W 21D 16L in their last 65 games (1.62 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 20W 19D 26L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.09 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 53%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Adana Demirspor and 62% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sivasspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 62% of Sivasspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Sivasspor 4-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 42% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 27%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.