Adana Demirspor 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 49%, yet in-form Kasımpaşa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Adana Demirspor stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Adana Demirspor, 2 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Adana Demirspor 1–2 Kasımpaşa — a Kasımpaşa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 62% and Kasımpaşa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.03 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.088 / defence 1.004 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.253 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.176. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Adana Demirspor's projected output up. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.253, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 60 games and Kasımpaşa's last 60.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 26%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.06 | Draw 3.98 | Kasımpaşa 3.80. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Adana Demirspor 2.03 / Kasımpaşa 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.088 / def 1.004 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.253 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 9 February 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 49% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.09x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 60 games and Kasımpaşa's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
49%
2.06
25%
3.98
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.51
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
3%
28.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.48 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 19D 14L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 22W 12D 26L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.67 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 30 home games (19W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 7D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.47 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 22W 12D 26L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.13 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won Adana Demirspor 5-0 Kasımpaşa.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2025: Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Adana Demirspor and 60% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 60% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 55% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Adana Demirspor 1-3 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.03 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.25 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 26%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Kasımpaşa 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.67 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.